Nuclear Energy: Uranium Fission :: essays research papers

Nuclear Energy Uranium FissionThousands of years ago human beings learned to make fire. By collectingand burning wood they were able to warm themselves, cook food, and manufactureprimitive tools. Later, the Egyptians discovered the principal of the sail.Even more recent was the invention of the water wheel. All of these activitiesutilize various forms of energy-biological, chemical, solar, and hydraulic.Energy, the ability to do work, is essential for meeting basic humanneeds, extending the life expectancy, and providing a rising living standard.This is where the need for atomic power comes in. Uranium fission isabout a million times more efficient than the common practice of burning burn oroil. For comparison, coal combustion produces about 20-30 MJ/kg of heat energywhile uranium, in a fast breeder reactor, produces more than 24,000,000 MJ/kg(Energy 27). Those numbers alone atomic number 18 astounding.Uranium is also abundant, thanks to recent discoveries of large reserves.At present, uranium is only being mined and separated from ore. However, ahuge untapped fount is our oceans. Sea water contains 3.3x10(-9) (3.3 partsper billion) of uranium, so the 1.4x1018 tons of sea water contains 4.6x109tons of uranium. All the worlds electricity usage, 650GWe could therefore besupplied by the uranium in sea water for 7 million years(Energy 25). This is aonly a theoretical number because it is not possible to get all(a) of the uraniumout of our vast oceans. Also, it does not include the fact that in that manyyears, half of the uranium will no longer exist due to radioactive decay. So,at worst, we would get about 2 million years of power from it. Thorium isanother element than can be used in nuclear reactors. Thorium is approximatelyfour times more abundant than uranium. It is obvious that we are in no dangerof exhausting these sources of energy. We need to crusade these resources an duse them to our advantage. God has given us the knowledge to use uranium forpow er, so why shouldnt use it? There are many benefits to victimization nucleargenerated power over our other common sources.A big advantage of nuclear power plants is that they do not burnanything, they are non-polluting, and they are kind to the environment. Unlikecoal-, gas-, and oil-fired power plants, nuclear power plants do not emit carbondioxide and other harmful greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.This is not to reckon that no waste is produced in a nuclear reaction. Anaverage size nuclear reactor produces 1000 MWe and leaves behind about 25 tonsof washed-out fuel.

A Home on the Range :: Personal Narrative West Papers

A Home on the Range I swear that I spent my entire childhood waiting for Ray and Mary-Beth Garson. I would rock back and forth on the plush golden chair to the right of my Grandpas and look out towards the golden Wyoming hills and the hay stack, waiting for their trailer to devolve bouncing see into the yard of the Dodds Family Gatecreek Ranch. Once they were in sight, I would dash outside and pretend to be busying myself with the saddles or sprucing up the area around the barn. It was never clear how many horses they would bring, but they always brought April and that was all that mattered. She was my horse. When my stupefy would tell Ray how much I loved April, he would just look down at his feet, smile and say, Shes a good horse. This time, however, I was not waiting for Ray and Mary-Beth by the window. I actually was busy in the yard, preparing a barbeque on our new grill from Kmart. In summers long past, we would have gone up to the picnic grounds to have dinner, but thi s time because it was just my mother and I we decided to stay at the house. There were no cousins, aunts, uncles, or siblings milling about, making trips to and from the house with the food and friends. There were no horses in the now terribly overgrown and ruledown corral and there were no cows in the meadow behind the house. An elaborate meal was not on coldcock it was just burgers, salad, and a Dominos pizza that Mary-Beth brought from town. I had not been to the Ranch since the death of my grandmother, four years earlier. She died on the eve of the millennium, perhaps not absentminded to embark into the 21st century, after living through three open-heart surgeries, and the loss of a child and two husbands. Her one true source of joy came from Roger, my mothers half brother, the product of her first marriage which ended when her husbands plane was shot down during World War II. Roger was her prince and she showered him with more love than my grandfather, Thomas Dodds, would ever experience. Tensions had always run high between Roger and the rest of the family, but they came to a climax after my grandmothers death.

Imagery in Othello Essays -- Othello essays

Imagery in Othello The vast array of natural imaginativeness in Shakespeares tragic gambol Othello dazzles the audiences minds. Let us survey in this essay the varieties of imagery referred to by the playwright. The vulgar imagery of Othellos quaint dominates the opening of the play. Francis Ferguson in Two Worldviews hark back Each Other describes the types of imagery used by the antagonist when he slips his mask aside while awakening Brabantio Iago is letting relax the wicked passion inside him, as he does from time to time throughout the play, when he slips his mask aside. At such moments he always resorts to this imagery of money-bags, treachery, and animal lust and violence. So he expresses his own faithless, envious spirit, and, by the same token, his vision of the populous city of Venice Iagos world, as it has been called. . . .(132) Standing out of doors the senators home late at night, Iago uses imagery within a lie to arouse the occupant Awake what, ho, Brabant io thieves thieves thieves / Look to your house, your daughter and your bags When the senator appears at the window, the ancient continues with coarse imagery of animal lust Even now, now, very now, an old black ram / Is topping your white ewe, and youll have your daughter covered with a Barbary horse youll have your nephews neigh to you youll have coursers for cousins and gennets for germans. David Bevington in William Shakespeare Four Tragedies comments that the imagery in the play is quite mundane, and he tells why The battle of good and criminal is of course cosmic, but in Othello that battle is realized through a taut narrative of jealousy and murder. Its poetic images are accordingly focused t... ...s Desdemona forrader stabbing himself to death Cold, cold, my girl Even like thy chastity. O cursed slave Whip me, ye devils, From the possession of this heavenly sight Blow me about in winds roast me in sulphur Wash me in steep-down gulfs of liquid fire O Desdemona Desd emona dead (5.2) WORKS CITED Bevington, David, ed. William Shakespeare Four Tragedies. New York Bantam Books, 1980. Ferguson, Francis. Two Worldviews Echo Each Other. Readings on The Tragedies. Ed. Clarice Swisher. San Diego Greenhaven Press, 1996. Reprint from Shakespeare The Pattern in His Carpet. N.p. n.p., 1970. Shakespeare, William. Othello. In The Electric Shakespeare. Princeton University. 1996. http//www.eiu.edu/multilit/studyabroad/othello/othello_all.html No line nos.

Destiny, Fate, Free Will and Free Choice in Oedipus the King - Victim

The Victim of Fate in Oedipus Rex The question has been raised as to whether Oedipus was a victim of fate or of his own actions. This look for will show that Oedipus was a victim of fate, but he was no puppet because he freely and actively sought his doom, although he was warned many measure of the inevitable repercussions of his actions. When first considering this topic, I speculated that maybe it was the destiny of Oedipus to suffer, but a friend asked me to explain why Oedipus, in the act of gouging his eyes out, cries explicitly No more, no more shall you look on the misery about me, The horrors ... ...ology of the Great Myths and Epics. Illinois Passport Books, 1988. Segal, Charles. Oedipus Tyrannus Tragic Heroism and the Limits of Knowledge. New York Twayne Publishers, 1993. Sophocles. Oedipus Rex. An Introduction to Literature, 11th ed.Eds. inelegant Barnet, et al. New York Longman, 1997. 800-836.

Lord Of The Flies :: essays research papers

Lord of the FliesI The Characters...Ralph - Ralph is one of the older kids stranded on the island, one with a natural leadership quality about him. He is one of the stronger, if not the strongest of the boys 12 year old with common sentience to help him expire along on his own unfortunately, common sense doesnt fly too well with small children. Ralph is stuck between what is considered fun, and what needs to get done in order to have peace on the island. Not a position many would like to be in, but as he was chosen leader, he has the respect of most of the kids on the island.Piggy - Piggy is an eager, chubby kid, who likes to poke his nose where it doesnt belong. Piggy is the only one on the island that wears glasses to aid his vision, and seems to be a character easily disliked because of his babyish personality. Although he is one of the most rational and logical thinkers, his ideas are seldom heeded, of importly because of his persistent whining. Piggy has asthma, and this mak es it difficult for him to work. Ralph, being the first to meet Piggy, became his guardian, and protector from the other childrens cruelty on the island.Jack - Jack Merridew is a singer, head of the choir, and has an intimidating appearance and way of talk. Jack is jealous, and when Ralph is elected Chief, Jack forms a bit of hatred in his heart, not revealing it even unto himself until cartridge clip passes. He is head hunter, and likes fun more than work, and eventually wins the favor of the children, claiming Ralph as a coward, and a person who just dreams about being rescued. II The Conflict...The main conflict in Lord of the Flies is that a fairly large group of boys have been stranded on an island in the Pacific with no adults well-nigh to lead and guide them. They do set up a leadership consisting of a chief, and then workers who carry out the chiefs orders. This works great for about a week, but soon the children tire of the work, and do not realize the long term consequenc es involved with not having necessities like shelter and a signal fire, and sooner long, fun rebels against common sense, turning the island into chaos. Eventually there is a war, the hunters against the worker/dreamers.

Over My Dead Body Essay -- essays research papers

I consecrate often wondered why people went through so much time and capital disposing of dead bodies. Once the person dies, I seriously doubt that they care what happens to their body. In the past, bodies have been put to rest many different ways. Cultures have a large effect on this. or so cultures would burn the body or hang them up high so the spirits could be released. Nevertheless, I have only found three legal ways to thrash of a dead body in the United States today.Burial is the traditional way to go. The majority of our population is put six feet under in an expensive casket, just so they can rot. Burying someone almost seems rude because it allows the worms, bacteria, and other decomposers to run away at the body. Besides that, cemeteries are taking up a large amount of land that could be used for something useful. Also, when having an open casket funeral, I believe that it brings more pain to the family. They then have to face the reality while staring at the gross cadaver. Sometimes families even get in large arguments over what the person is going to wear when buried. I believe that we could all save stress, time, and money by finding better way to dispose of our bodies. I feel that there are better options.Cremation has many advantages but is rarely used unless the person is badly hurt or has no family. Some people think that cremation is morbid and sick, but I believe that it makes good sense. By cremating...

My Most Successful Moment to Date Essay

Through all my years of high school I was homeschooled. This was due to the fact that my mom was taking cargon of my grandparents in Florida, at the time we lived in North Carolina, and my dad traveled for work therefore, there was no body to take us to school. Online school became the only pickaxe in that situation. As a way of staying busy and getting out of the house I always worked odd jobs that would hire me at the age of 15. In 10th grade, I was working a full time nannying job with four children, three dogs, one cat, a traveling dad, and an insanely fabulous, motivated mom. My main(prenominal) priority and trouble was spent to in for sure the care of their six month old daughter, Jemma. She was, among many other jobs I had in the house, my most important and benevolent responsibility. She was a very intelligent toddler, with a lot of attitude and charisma. She had blonde straight hair with a single curl at the very buns and big brown eyes.Feeding her was never an issue, a s to say she ate anything and everything you put in front of her, which would explain the fact that her rolls had rolls. She loved going on long walks, the family pets and anything with bright colors. She was also very easy going. As a very young baby she never cried or make any objective noises at all. By the time Jemma had turned one she had made no attempts to talk. Due to our concern of her lack of speech, Jemmas mom, Michelle, and I decided to teach her an preference way of communicating until she learned to talk. It didnt take very long for us to come up with an idea. Now a days there are a couple alternative speeches being taught to babies no matter what their speech predicament is. Since I was fluent in sign language and it seemed the most hardheaded we agreed to give it a try. I got to work immediately teaching her as much as her mind could absorb each day. I made flash cards, bought books, and dismantle downloaded some apps on my phone to help her progress along. Withi n a weeks time Jemma signed her very first word, bottle. analyse more Essay AboutProudest MomentTo no one surprise though, of course, because we all knew this is what was always on her mind What seemslike a small accomplishment, if youll even recognize it at that, meant so much to me. The sense of pride and accomplish I felt in that very moment was overwhelming. Because of my hard work and loyalty this beautiful child could now start tell us what she needed. The progress only continued and the excitement continued to rise every day. It was amazing this small, plump, happy, forgetful baby could comprehend so much so quickly moreover, the fact of how focused and eager she was for every lesson. In just a few soon months, Jemma had learned almost everything I had to teach her. It got to the point where I had to look and keep up with her instead of the other way around and boy, did she made sure we listened to every last word she had to sign. Like a cat she would sit there and just gr ab at you continuously until she felt that she had your full attention to look and see what she had to say.The feeling of pride and success I had in those few short months of Jemmas constant improvement, is one Ill never forget. At the age of 15.5, a young child myself, I had given a child the gift of communication. Though many could have done exactly what I did and probably even better than I its something that I single-handedly completed, happily. That feeling is one no one can ever take away from me, but also one that cannot be mimic or reproduced again to the same level. To this day, I have seldom done anything that, in my eye, is so substantive that I have had the privilege of enjoying that same exact feeling of self-importance and success, as I felt teaching Jemma sign language.

Two English language programmes implemented in school

As general cognition face is of import linguistic communication in our life-time particularly in Malaysia focusing. In Malaysia educatees learn to listen, talk, read and compose in slope. Therefore, the position Reading Corner and modern lit Programme argon implementing in my cultivate, SJKC KUO KUANG, Skudai, Johor. side Reading Corner, a corner in each category, rail fix some knowledge stuffs such as fiction or non-fiction tarradiddle curbs, lexicon, large books, magazines, newspaper and so on. Students allow to read the reading stuffs while they argon free in the category or break newspaper clipping. contemporaneous Literature Programme, a course of discipline under Education Department of our authorities. This is particularly for social class 4 to course 6 students to read the literature books. The intent of this pack is to register both English political platform and province out the manner of implementing of the two broadcasts are keeping in my school.2.0 Contemporary Literature Programme2.1 Purposes and AimsThere are two purposes of the Contemporary Literature Programme. As First, to assist students fail their English through reading simple fiction. Second, to supply a continue for the literature constituent introduced in lower-ranking school.There are six Numberss of aims of the Contemporary Literature Programme. By the terminal of their primary schooling, students should be ableTo transfuse and all the reading wont among students.To amend students phrase and linguistic communication content.To heighten students thought attainments.To advance cultural apprehension in the Malayan context.To better English wrangle proficiency of students.To experience good imaginativeness.2.2 DurationThe Contemporary Literature Programme was carried out whole twelvemonth for pupil twelvemonth 4, 5 and 6. For the teaching period on SJKC, we utilizing 1 English linguistic communication period all(prenominal) two weeks to learn students read their biography book which is provide.2.3 Target GroupThe Contemporary Literature Programme is mark on pupil Year 4, 5 and 6. No affair that they are good pupil or bad pupil they must pay off in this programme. This programme precedence for under accomplishing schools and rural schools. The book chosen for each set are 40 % fiction books and 60 % non-fiction books. The full Student s accomplishment leave be recorded in Reading cards or books.2.4 Report on executionWith the implemented of the Contemporary Literature Programme, Our school design the programme based on 3 space. First, the intensive reading programme based on 3 prescribed texts per twelvemonth. Second, Genres consist of short narratives and verse forms. Third, every pupil provide with 3 books, with the premise that a pupil will be able to finish 1 book in 3 months.In our school we select the books which are conform to for our pupil we choose the books based on 5 considerations. That is the subjects and rubrics tha t appeal to 10-12 twelvemonth olds, suited garrison size, and good quality paper. Beside this, pickings suited linguistic communication for both rural and urban pupil is of import to increase their involvement. Last, choose the interesting plot line with embedded clean-living values so that they domiciliate go on to read.This programme is running on schoolroom clip that is structured into 3 phases, which is Pre-reading, While- reading and Post-reading. Because of we be aft(prenominal)ing write out 1 book in 3 months so usually we separate it in one phase per month. We design the phase of reading in quadruplet instruction program and English instructor must province down all the activity they are be aftering. Teacher ever spend the clip steering with the students either as a whole category or in radicals and students are non asked to get down with reading on their ain sooner they are ready.Here, I will describe on some activity ever been utilizing by English instructor to succ ess this programme. In Pre-reading phase, Teacher will inquire students empower the book screen, title page and besides ISBN page. Discuss artworks on the front screen of the book with students and inquire students to foretell the rubric of the narrative. Then, teacher will inquire students predict plot lines based on the kick downn compend and where the narrative takes topographic point. Following, teacher introduces subjects utilizing object or image stimulations to familiarity of thoughts and questionnaires on subjects in the reader. Beside this, instructor will discourse with students about the background information, such as, the writer s life, finishing information grid utilizing writer s life. Last, teacher introduces linguistic communication and vocabulary points before start reading to do them experience comfy when While-reading phase particularly hapless pupil. For illustration, inquire students fall out the hard word or vocabulary they are non understand the signifi bearce, so inquire them construct into group and happen out the significance utilizing dictionary by themself.In the 2nd phase of instruction, it is called that While-reading phase. This phase is of import to assist students understand the book. At the first, students will be given appropriate entry points in the narrative for them to foretell the narrative. Some instructor prefer allow their students speaking about the scene of the narrative and students fix a clip line in group to allow them understand the narrative. Following, instructor besides will inquire students to foretell results, instructor can accept all the reply if it is in the backcloth of acceptable. Teacher helps pupils to understand the plot line with prepare a narrative map in the group. Then, Teacher and students must speak about the characters in the narrative to place the characters and their features. Besides that, they can speak about the events in the narrative and role-play the events in the narrative and other students inquire to reply some simple inquiries to do received they understand the events of the narrative. Last, pupils ask to re-tell draw of the narrative in one ain word to better their assurance while speaking.In the last phase, Post-reading activities are carried out after students puddle read the whole book. It is sound like contemplation. They are to research beyond the text by utilizing the text as a footing. The activity etc. reassign information from the text into a notice, an advertizement or a missive. Teacher will assist students develop their critical and original thought accomplishments such as ask students talk about one s favourite event in the narrative. Teacher will be develop pupils composing accomplishments from book reappraisal or do a pagination in group. Besides that, Some instructor like to inquire students do the vocabulary edifice activities to group words harmonizing to classs to assist them maintain in memory.2.5 Strengths and failings of Pr ogrammeThe execution of Contemporary Literature Programme was success. The students can read at the terminal of category. However, on that point were some strength and failings found when transporting out this programme.Strengths of the Contemporary Literature Programme are we work hard to taking suited book for pupil to invoke they read more than on clip to clip. Teacher steering the pupil in schoolroom clip so that when they have job of reading or Confuse the significance of the word instructor can work out the job on the topographic point to heighten the effectivity of learning. Beside this, pupils reading in category with their schoolmate can increase the sensations between friends and they will experience Learning are non entirely. They besides love the activity like games, crossword mystifier, it can do they experience that this clip of reading is different in other period, is like playing non analyze, moreover they study when they are playing.Unfortunate every programme has failings. After us running in school we recognize that this programme merely reading in schoolroom is good but non plenty for our pupil they are more interested in singing and moving. And the continuance of this programme is non plenty because when we utilizing 1 English linguistic communication period every two weeks is merely do them read a few book merely. Now a twenty-four hours, our pupil largely involvement in Virtual origination like cyberspace or on-line games more that reading books, if we maintaining utilizing old manner to learning we become disused in the hereafter.2.6 Suggestions and recommendationsIn order to do Contemporary Literature Programme successful in the hereafter, I would wish to give some suggestions and recommendations. First, it is suggested that the continuance of Contemporary Literature Programme to be teach in 1 period per hebdomad same with SK. That will enable students reading more books and instructor can make more activity with students excessi vely.Second, activity of instruction can be more interesting and different types of activity such as moving the characters, holding little competition and given some present to promote preform more active in category or holding a marionette show and so on. I am certain that interested activity will be more attractive.Last, instructors should utilize information engineering in their schoolrooms illustration teacher utilizing PowerPoint or flash to demo the outline of the book, secret plan, subject or characters briefly, I think this is the manner to raise the involvement of students, and students will be more dressed ore in our instruction, more repartee from students mean that our programme is success and meaningful.3.0 English Reading Corner Programme3.1 Purposes and AimsThe purpose of English Reading Corner is to develop involvement of reading English verbiage stuffs among students and consolidate their basic linguistic communication from age of seven. While reading the stuffs, students learn the accomplishments of reading, expression production, composing and grammar from the related activities.There are seven Numberss of aims of the English Reading Corner. By the terminal of their primary schooling, students should be ableTo promote students pass on in English while they are giving their feeling.To better spelling while students composing the reading studies.To consolidate the BASIC of English and grammar accomplishment.To heighten the intrepidity speaking and showing their reading study to audience.To develop reading intelligence among students.To transfuse moral values.To enrich students vocabulary and linguistic communication content.3.2 DurationThe English Reading Corner was carried out whole twelvemonth in our school from the 1s t twenty-four hours student in school. Students are reading all sort of reading stuffs while they are free in schoolroom, after instructor s teaching period, after terminate their prep or at the interruption clip. Teache rs spend some multiplication to prepaid for this corner and doing some activities after their text edition instruction in category.3.3 Target GroupThe English Reading Corner Programme is target on all the students in school ( Year 1 to Year 6 ) .The English instructors of every category as a coach for the students to promote them to read, to compose, to describe and doing some activities after the students reading a book or intelligence. Besides of instructors as a coach, the better students can be a coach to assist those schoolmates who do non understand while they are reading. Students can larn each other to acquire new information and cognition.3.4 Report on executionThere will hold many sorts of reading stuffs in the English Reading Corner, such as narrative books, large books, magazines, newspapers, dictionary and so on. All of these reading stuffs are taking out from school library or patrons by students. The English Language Panel in school will discourse in the English Langu age meeting and so taking the suited reading stuffs before the school start. The Story book and large book is taking from school library based on criterion of our pupil. The newspapers New top dog Times or The Star or magazines are sponsor by each category students. They bring from their place to portion the information with their friend in category.Students are allow and promote to read these reading stuffs while they are free in the schoolroom, after instructor s teaching period, after completing their prep or at the interruption clip. English teacher as a coach are ready to assist the students who meet jobs while they are reading. Apart from this, the first-class pupils besides can be the coach and assisting their schoolmates who meet jobs. There are dictionary in the corner. Junior students like Year 1 pupil can utilize it to larn how to utilizing dictionary and senior students can utilizing it to look into the vocabulary that they are non understood.Teacher will name a gr oup of pupil to manage this English corner, responsibility of them is make certain the corner clean and tidy, assisting schoolmate while they are holding job. And withdraw to mend when book are rake or breakage.Sometimes, after the text edition instruction in an English Language period, instructors will doing some interesting activities such as story-telling, recite verse form, brainstorming of IQ inquiries, crossword mystifier and so on in the English Reading Corner. There are some activities can make in the corner. First, pupils read a short narrative or an article from magazine or newspaper. After that, the pupils can state the narrative to their friends, portion their narrative each other. Then, teacher guides the pupils to do a study or speaking about their feeling in forepart of the category. This can heighten their bravery while speaking and showing the reading study to the audience. At the interim, instructor encourages others students to inquire some inquiries or speak abo ut their sentiment related to the study or feeling. So, a conversation is making between the students and instructor. These can better their speech production and listening accomplishments. Besides, teacher guides the students to associate the study or feeling with the moral values. This is one of the manner instructors can transfuse the moral values to the students and bring forth a good attitude coevals.Second, after students reading in the corner, they are composing a study and go through up to their instructors. In their reading study, they need to do a decision sing what they had read. From the decision, students have to name out the rubric of book or article, what they have learned and what the moral values in the narrative or an article from newspaper or magazine. Virtually, students are larning the good attitude to form their thoughts. This is besides bettering their authorship, spelling and grammar accomplishments.3.5 Strengths and failingsThe English Reading Corner was suc cess. All the instructors and parents gave to the full support and cooperation. Students are bettering in their hearing, speech production, reading, composing and grammar. Students can pass on in English. The worst students can talk in simple and short sentences excessively. Their authorship accomplishments improve twenty-four hours by twenty-four hours. Their betterment makes them go more assurance and some of them start to love English. They feel proud when communicate eloquence in English. And experiencing glorious because of family and friends praised.Students get more cognition after reading newspaper in the English Reading Corner. This type of cognition non merely from school input but worldwide. Students can larn the new words and vocabulary after reading the narrative and look intoing the significance utilizing the lexicon.The failings of this programme, instructors lack of times because they need more times to steer students to speak, to believe, to give sentiment in the E nglish Reading Corner besides of their day-to-day instruction to cover the text edition and workbook course of study. In SJKC, there are non more than 6 periods of English period in a hebdomad. Teachers truly do nt hold adequate clip to run this programme swimmingly.The reading stuffs are one of the failings. Story books in school are non plenty and some of the stuffs are non suited for the Year 1 to Year 3 pupils. Most of the narrative books are non interesting as they have no colourss, no images and full page of article. These make students experience bored on them. Dictionary, every English Reading Corner merely got one lexicon. A category of pupils portions a lexicon, that truly non plenty.3.6 Suggestions and recommendationsIn order to do the English Reading Corner more eloquence in future, instructors can pass some times after school to transport on this programme. We can set up the clip and do a timetable, so that is convenience to the students and instructors to remain back a fter school. Then, instructors can concentrate and cover their learning while in category. Besides that, we besides need to hold some account with parent to allow them understand that and set up their timetable to pick up their kid.Second, I suggest that school can utilizing the instruction fund or PIBG fund to purchase more interesting reading stuffs that are suited for primary school pupils particularly Year 1 to Year 3 students. The books must be colourful and full of attractive images such as large books. The juniors prefer that sort of books really much because large books give nice ocular effects and the narrative lines are attractive. Even the seniors besides like this sort of book really much. Dictionaries are much needed excessively. A lexicon is the good assistant in student survey live.4 DecisionIt is hoped that the English Reading Corner Programme and Contemporary Literature Programme that is implementing by the English Language Panel of my school, SJKC KUO KUANG, Skudai , Johor can be benefitted by all pupils form Year 1 to Year 6 no affair they are superb or weak pupil. Hope that every student in my school can read right, listen clearly, speak assurance and good written. Based on the failings and recommendations, the English Language Panel of my school besides hope that to foster better the English Reading Corner Programme and Contemporary Literature Programme in twelvemonth 2012 in order to do usage of English Language more seeable in our school.States the intent and outlines the content of the study compactly at the start. Historical background is so provided. Clear, well-organised Table of Contentss.

A Shifting Self of a Postmodern Detective in City of Glass

The main character in City of the Glass has a split subjectivity and is presented to the readers at the first beginning as having multiple identities. In the triad of selves that Quinn had become, Wilson served as a kind of ventriloquist. Quinn him ego was the dummy, and Work was the animated voice that gave purpose to the enterprise (Austere, 6). Quinn publishes under the pseudonym William Wilson and lives through gook Work, the novel hero he creates. William Wilson is only an invention that serves as the bridge for him to walk into Works detective voice (Austere, 4).Quinn is solely the puppeteer dummy an empty husk. His thinking and national voice Is substituted by guck Work, who gives life to Quinn In his solitude. As Is written In the novel, the writer and the detective ar interchangeable (Austere, 8). The private eye looks into objects and events in search of ideas, in order to make sense of them, leading to an ultimate truth. For Quinn, the private eye holds a triple meani ng (Austere, 8). Throughout the story, we as readers are engaged in the split of l when we look into the case with the three eyes.One is of an Investigator, probably Max Work who discerns details and traces of facts two is room the lifeless self wealth Quinn, who keeps a distance from the outer world and the last eye from the writer or narrator of the story that appears In the end when the case dissolves. The destabilise of subject challenges the readers, as the detective drifts from one identity to another, we also lost a stable detective eye to scrutinize the case. The imaginary figure Max Work is present in the world of others the fictive outside world.For this reason he is more real and powerful than Quinn. The more Quinn seemed to vanish, the more persistent Works armorial bearing In that world became (Austere, 9). HIS vanishing Inclination Is perhaps due to his alienation In actual world. After the death of his loved ones, he is no longer the pushy part of him that publish ed a number of works. He hides behind his pseudonym to be in touch with his agent, publisher and readers on the surface. Having no friends and family, he no longer exists for any(prenominal)one but himself (Austere, 4).This isolation of himself from others accounts for his desire to replace a unified Quinn with multiple Identities, since there Is no connection with others that anchors his subjectivity. And afflicted with all the devastating engender and traumatic memory. Max Work, on the other hand, is an aggressive and quick-tongued (Austere, 9) detective figure whose consciousness Quinn relies on throughout the investigation. Though he has no knowledge of any crime, he attempts to draw relations between events Just like Max would do.Max embodies a modern detective notion of attaining truth through ones rationality and consistency, moreover Quinn represents a deciphering subject without a coherent self. A classic detective novel hails the power of reason, and a traditional detec tives observation to uncover mysteries is associated with seeking original truth in a modernist perspective. Quinns desire to lose himself, or to assume alternative identities are incongruous with a traditional detective, who generally has a coherent and consistent self (Sourpuss, 76). The quest for Peter Stallion Sir. s identity is also an attempt to find Quinn himself, which is revealed in his putting down his initial, Q in his rubicund notebook that records the case. However, indulged in the case, Quinn easily shifts himself into the role of detective Paul Austere, an author in the novel mistaken for a detective. To be Austere meant macrocosm a man with no interior, a man with no thoughts, If his own inner life had been made inaccessible, hen there was no place for him to kip down to (Austere, 61). By being Paul Austere, Quinn empties his inner life and takes up the consciousness of another imaginative figure, a role shaped after detective models.Quinn becomes a mere husk and has nowhere to go back, which shadows his final destiny of disappearing from the scene. Towards the end, the death of Peter Stallion and Quinns encounter with the real Paul Austere makes him earn his inability to uncover the truth. He is nowhere and he knew nothing (Austere, 104), which is the beginning state of being nowhere he desired. This detective story seems a bunch returning to the original point, compared to a linear structure of a conventional one with a definite solution.Without solving the puzzle, Quinn loses himself eventually. Sourpuss wrote that the detective must be a consistent person that enables him to concentrate on the mystery outside of him. Therefore, a degree of ambiguity involved in the detectives very identity give interfere with his ability to tackle the mystery at hand (76). As this applies to Quinn, a writer-detective who gets lost in the labyrinth in search of his own identity, it explains he failure of the investigation with no solution in the end.

Building a More Just Society Essay

Providing advice to a newly engaged or newly wed couple would be very challenging. Because they note like they know everything just about their relationships. So the f move that they atomic number 18 asking for help says a lot about them wanting to make their relationship livelong. This says that they be de shareing to discover and learn from individual who has a little more knowledge about relationships. Words arse be extremely effective in a relationship however their impact green goddess bring in a invalidating impact if they ar not used properly. If negative words are used with a negative tone they are qualifying to be perceived in a negative manner.If you want to have good communication, its the positive tone and words you choose which will make the best impact. The proper use of words chiffonier make or go bad a conversation. People are more likely to communicate and discuss issues if you speak respectfully and polite rather than negative. incontrovertibility a l dashs goes farther than negativity especially in todays world. With all the negativity that is already surrounding us on a perfunctory basis it is so all- substantial(prenominal) to try to keep a positive aspect on our lives and relationships. How do you teach someone to be positive in their relationship?Every day is almost impossible to be perfect and keep negative thoughts and comments from coming up. There is going to be negative things that go in up save teaching young couples how to manage those incidents and not let them turn into something more devastating is going to be the key to conquest. There are many aspects to work on with couples of all ages. One of the main things to teach is comprehending skills like that listening is a key part of proper communication. auditory modality has proven to have much more of an impact on relationships than talking.It is all about why you say something or how you say it that impacts how well people are going to listen to the words that come out of your mouth. Listening requires that you pay attention to the tone of voice, facial expression, eye contact, and physical gestures of your partner. Doing this rather than focusing on what you are going to say next can help enhance your listening skills. It can also help with learning how to properly communicate. If you know how to listen you can learn how to communicate in a healthy manner. If you have had poor listening skills for years and are trying to improve them it is not going to be easy.But it is definitely possible with time practice and most of all patience. Relationships are not only built on listening thither are so many aspects to cover. One main aspect is honesty if you dont have honesty in a relationship you cannot have a fortunate relationship. But the key is that two parties have to be completely honest with each separate. If one person is not honest and the other is there will be a sense of mistrust in the relationship. This will cause a relatio nship to suffer immensely. If you want a well-chosen and successful relationship you need to accept that everything may not always be perfect but honesty is the key to success.Keeping even the smallest of secrets will add up and can put extreme damage on a relationship. So for a relationship to succeed a key to its success is complete and utter honesty. If you love your meaningful other that should not be a problem because relationships are built on love, faith, honesty, commitment. A part of relationship comes with self-expression you should never hesitate to discuss something. Just because you are a couple doesnt meant that your significant other knows everything that you are thinking, feeling or opinions on an issue.This is where interpersonal communication comes in because you may feel that you are expressing yourself clearly but it was not received as you intended. Non-verbal communication has a huge impact on relationships whether they are dating, married or even friends. Fa cial expressions say so much more than could ever be imagined. You can make or break friendships with what comes across from facial expressions. Due to the fact that perception is what matters at that point. People go off of your facial expressions more than we ever could think.This is perception perception is the way someone interprets what they see, hear from you. So facial expression can make a person feel extremely uncomfortable. Communication is key to a successful relationship taking that extra time out of your day to ensure that the relationship doesnt suffer. 10 minutes a day is all that it takes to be effective in your relationship. If you are willing to spend 10 minutes a day talking to your significant other about your relationships, things that are important to you and them you will be amazed at how much more positive your relationship will be.If a healthy relationship is what you want you have to be willing to put and effort into it. Lets face it how much does it honest ly take out of your day to spend 10 minutes with your significant other. Communication can be done without even opening your mouth. It can be done based on facial expression, body posture. These are know as non verbal communication and they can impact relationships so much. Because people read your face and interpret what they think you are thinking it may or may not be accurate but that is a problem that comes with non verbal communication.I wish it was easy to say someone how to communicate but all that can be offered are suggestions and they need to learn which skills work best for them on a personal level. Relationships can be made or broken based on the peoples communication skills. Poor communication skills can lead to a person feeling feelings such as anger, doubt or even disinterest. But if communication is done properly it can lead to feelings of trust, happiness and love. Relationships are either healthy or inflamed and for you to be healthy as a person it is best for yo u to be in a healthy relationship.A healthy relationship meets the needs of both parties and is not selfish. It leads a relationship to a positive future rather than leading a relationship into distress. For a relationship to succeed here are 5 simple things to do that can help. According to Mary Lamphere in a article titled 5 tips for improving interpersonal skills Tip 1 Be Honest People do not like someone who is a liar or someone who seems fake. Many people can tell if a person is acting in a way that is not real to them and this makes others feel the need to hide from you the same way.Do not act like someone that you are not just to gain the friendship of that person. Tip 2 Never Criticize To criticize someone is to act as though you are inherently better than that person. You should go into any relationship with the thought that you are no better than the next person-because you arent You may do some things better than the other person, but they likely do some things better tha n you. Tip 3 Listen to People This skill is very important for interpersonal communication success.To listen to someone means not just to hear what they are adage but to actually consider what they are saying and find something that you can agree with. Do not just instantly decide that you disagree and then stop listening. Pay attention to the other person and think about what they are saying. Find a way that you can relate to their thoughts even if you dont fully agree with them. Another part of listening to people includes remembering what they say. You do not have to remember an entire conversation, but at lease remember the main points so that you can respond meaningfully.Pay attention because often times a persons name is the very beginning of a conversation and this is one of the most important points. Do whatever you have to do to make sure that you do not forget a persons name as this implies that you didnt care enough to listen right from the start Tip 4 Ask Questions Aski ng questions is a nonverbal communication technique that everyone should consider. This technique is useful to you and it makes the other person feel like you actually care. You should care enough to ask questions that relate to a conversation so that you can continue a conversation.Tip 5 admission charge Admit when you are wrong If you are wrong and you know it or it has been proven, then admit to it gracefully. Do not make a big vision about it, we are all wrong at some point in our lives. It is how we admit our mistakes that make us more friendship oriented. Nobody likes someone who is arrogant and cannot admit a simple wrong doing. Providing advice to newly engaged couples can be challenging. Because they feel they know everything about relationships. So the fact that youre asking for help says a lot and says that you guys are willing to listen and learn from someone who has a little knowledge on relationships.

Deaf Culture Paper

To better appreciate what deafen assimilation is, lets go to an opposing view and take a look at what Deaf civilisation is not. There argon those who insist there is no such thing as Deaf culture. Some people will argue that deafness is zip fastener more than a disability, a disability that must be fixed. Getting this disability fixed may involve repeated visits to an audiologist, getting fitted for hearing aids, attend numerous speech therapy sessions, or even undergoing surgery to get a cochlear implant.This is whats called the pathological approach to deafness. It focuses on whats wrongthe inability to hearand utilizes numerous technological and therapeutic strategies to solve the problem. The success of this approach varies from individual to individual. For many hard of hearing or late-deafened people, technology may be a welcomed asset that allows them to continue functioning in the world of their choice. Deafness is a disability that is so unique, its very nature causes a culture to emerge from it.Participation in this culture is voluntary. There have been numerous Deaf publications over the years, such as Silent News, DeafNation, SIGNews, Deaf Life, and more. There are also catalogs chock full of books written by Deaf authors covering a wide range of topics. Some of these books include fascinating accounts of Deaf history and folklore. Weve been blessed with numerous Deaf perform artists such as Clayton Valli, Patrick Graybill, Bernard Bragg, Mary Beth Miller, Freda Norman, Gil Eastman, Peter Cook, C.J. Jones, Nathie Marbury, Evelyn Zola, The Wild Zappers, Rathskellar, and many more. In hearing culture, it is rude to stare. However, in Deaf culture, staring is necessary. If you break eye hitting while a person is signing to you, you are incredibly rude. Thats like plugging your ears when someone is speaking to you. In hearing culture, facial expression is very limited. If you scarper your face or body a lot while you are talking, you can be s een as weird (and nobody wants to be weird).However, in Deaf culture, facial expression and body movement is required for ASL. Its part of ASL grammar. Its OK to be weird in Deaf culture its normal And absolutely necessary. In hearing culture, you normally introduce yourself by your first name only. Deaf people, however, introduce themselves by their full names, and sometimes even what city theyre from or what crop they went to. By city, I mean the city you grew up in, not what city you are currently residing in. And by school I usually mean a residential school you attended.The Deaf community is very small, and Deaf people like to find those specific commonalities with each other. Men are more possible to develop hearing loss or complete deafness than women. About 20% of Americans have reported some degree of hearing loss. 2-3 children out of 1,000 are born deaf every year. 9/10 children with a degree of hearing loss are born from hearing parents. 1 out of 5 people whod benefit f rom hearing aids actually wear them. About 4,000 cases of sudden deafness occur each year. 10-15 percent of sudden deafness patients know how they lost their hearing.

John Locke and Thomas Hobbes Essay

John Locke and Thomas Hobbes were both important philosophers from the seventeenth century. The two were born nearly 50 years apart Hobbes in 1588 and Locke in 1632 and yet, they each managed to bring on a major impact on their time and our own. The philosophical viewpoints of Locke and Hobbes ar, in most cases, in strict opposition of each other. There be certain points at which the theories of both men collide however, their synonymous beliefs are exactly the point at which their theories begin to diverge again.John Locke is considered to be the first of the British Empiricists, who believed that in order to truly gain knowledge of a certain thing, any several(prenominal) would first have to experience something from which they would gain that knowledge. He is thought to be genius of the most influential Enlightenment thinkers and contributors to unaffixed theory. His writings influenced many other famous philosophers, such as Voltaire and Rousseau, as well as the Ameri can revolutionaries. The Declaration of Independence clearly shows his influence.Locke attended the Westminster instruct in London under the sponsorship of Alexander Popham, a member of British Parliament. He would later attend Christ Church at the University of Oxford. It was here that Locke became to a great extent interested in the works of Modern philosophers, such as Descartes. Locke and other Empiricists rejected the notion of innate ideas that is, the belief that human beings are born with ideas that are otherworldly, or known to us before we enter this life. Locke indulged in a theory which he dubbed tabula rasa, or blank slate in Latin.Following this theory, an individual would be born knowing nothing, and would therefore, only learn and gain knowledge by living and experiencing many things in their everyday life. Thomas Hobbes was raised by his uncle, Francis, as were his three siblings. He attended the Westport Church at age four for education, and then moved to the Ma lmesbury school, and further, onto a private school kept by a man named Rober Latimer, who was a graduate of Oxford University. Hobbes later attended Hertford College, a constituent college of Oxford University.He became fast friends with the son of William Cavendish, 3rd Earl of Devonshire, with whom he attended a grand tour in 1610. During the tour, Hobbes and Cavendish were exposed to European scientific and critical methods, which were in contrast to what Hobbes had been taught in his time at Oxford. Although Hobbes was closely linked to figures such as Francis Bacon, he did not become heavily involved in philosophy until after the year 1629. Hobbes lived during a time of great disturbance in Europe. The Thirty Years War lasted from 1618 until 1648.During this time, soldiers were rampant throughout villages, and they acted as they pleased raping women, destroying entire villages and cities, and leaving any living beings who were lucky enough to live without trade protection or sustenance. In consequence of the fact that Hobbes bore witness to these types of situations, his outlook on human nature was understandably somber. Locke and Hobbes were able to agree on one point all men are equal by nature yet, their reasoning for this statement varies. Like Hobbes, Locke believed that human nature allowed men to be selfish.However, in contrast to Hobbes theory that men will choose violence over peace, Locke insists that human nature is characterized by reason and tolerance. In his publication in 1651, Leviathan, Hobbes proclaim that while man does voluntarily commit some acts of goodness, man is not, naturally, good. The object of those voluntary acts, he believed, was essentially to do some good to the individual who performed them. Lockes outlook on human nature was somewhat optimistic. He believed that each individual person has the will and the freedom to think and do as they please, and that peck are naturally inclined to live according to reason.Therefor e, one can in conclusion assume that Locke definitely believed in humanity existing in congruity with one another. Locke believes that all men are created equal because they are born into a state of freedom that allows them to be equal Hobbes believes that all men are equal because they are all equally despicable. Both Hobbes and Locke believed that there was a sort of social contract between individual citizens and the ruling government. This Leviathan, as Hobbes proposed, would typeset the rights and duties of each party. Hobbes believed that once the contract was instituted, it would be irrevocable.No individual would be able to change their individual rights at a later time, and the government would ultimately have power over them from then on. Locke saw the agreement as less binding. Because he believed that each individual was born with certain natural rights that no other human being could revoke, the contract between the individuals and the state would always be conditio nal meaning that individuals retained the option to withdraw their consent and pull through those natural rights whenever they saw fit. I believe that Hobbes and Locke both had ideas that were based on their own experiences in their lifetimes.Being a person that has come after both of them, I have had the chance to read and try to understand both viewpoints, and I can see where their opinions would differ, and speculate as to why. Even today, living conditions in certain areas differ greatly, and can have a dramatic effect on a persons view of things. It is even quite doable for two neighbors to have opinions differing as greatly as Hobbes and Lockes. Because the majority of Hobbes life was spent experiencing pain and anguish inflicted by other humans, he believed other humans to be evil.Locke did not see such wrongdoing in his time rather, he saw a time of peace and prosperity. Therefore, he would not have assumed that humans were naturally evil beings. I think that we are lucky to have lived after so many great thinkers have. Both Hobbes and Locke proposed viewpoints that we are free to combine and contort, if we so choose, and we already have some of the thinking laid out for us by those men. Humans whitethorn or may not be naturally good beings we probably will not be able to say for sure until we have left this world. However, we may not have had much to ponder if it were not for John Locke and Thomas Hobbes.

Leagalizing Marijuana

numerous millions of people like to use marijuana, whether for therapeutic benefit or pleasure and every objective need on marijuana has concluded that it is far safer than alcohol and cig arettes for the consumer and the surrounding community. Alcohol and tobacco are much than toxic, more addictive, and more harmful to the body than marijuana, and alcohol is more likely to result in injuries and perish to interpersonal violence.According to an assessment published in the British Columbia Mental Health and Addictions Journal, health-related cost for alcohol consumers are eight quantify greater than those for marijuana consumers, and those for tobacco consumers are 40 times greater than those for marijuana consumers. Other benefits of legalising marijuana are Lower prices, thus crimes such as larceny would be reduced Street justice relating to drugs would be reduced Police and courts would be freed up for more serious crimes ill-gotten drug dealers would lose all or most of their business the fact that is illegal makes it more of a must declare for young people trying to be cool. smuggled cannabis is a stepping stone leading to other more hard-core drugs such as ecstasy, heroin, and cocaine. reservation it legal may change that the fact it would be much easier to obtain and people would not involve to associate with drug dealers, thus not be around other drugs and not being tempted by offers for other drugs.Legalizing it would also stop illegal transportation from countries to countries which would cut down the airport arrests. Health risks are also very low, Dr. Paul Homby (who is one of the leading authorities on cannabis research) said that you would have to smoke 15,000 joints in 20 minutes for you to receive a toxic amount of delta 9 terrahdrocannibinol which is a chemical found in pot, this clearly is impossible. Some notable medical conditions that weed has been proven to swear out are Epilepsy, multiple sclerosis, glaucoma, arthritis, de pression, anxiety, hepatitis C and morning sickness.There is variety of reasons for this which include weed calms people down, helps rectify the effectiveness of legal drugs used for the condition helps chronic pain reduces and relives the intraocular pressure that causes optic nerve disparage It is the contention of this essay that legalizing marijuana would not impact society in a negative representation but actually in a more positive one. This is shown by data and research from doctoral studies and the British Columbia Mental Health institute which is also supported by my invalid opinion.

The Usefulness of Accounting Estimates for Predicting Cash Flows

The Usefulness of be Estimates for Predicting Cash Flows and Earnings Baruch Lev* New York University Siyi Li University of Illinois Theodore Sougiannis University of Illinois and ALBA January, 2009 * fulfill t from apiece oneing Baruch Lev (emailprotected nyu. edu), Stern School of Business, New York University, New York, NY 10012.The authors argon indebted to the editor and reviewers of the Review of Accounting Studies for suggestions and guidance, and to Louis Chan, Ilia Dichev, John Hand, James Ohlson, Shiva Rajgopal, and Stephen Ryan for helpful comments, as well as to participants of seminars at A and sos University of political economy and Business, London Business School, Penn State University, Pur receivable University, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, University of Texas at Dallas, Washington University in St.Louis, the joint ColumbiaNYU Seminar, the sixteenth Financial Economics and Accounting Conference, the 2006 AAA FARS Mid form Meeting, and the 2008 AAA Annual Meeting. 1 ABSTRACT Estimates and projections argon insert in to the highest degree fiscal statement items. These musical themes potentially improve the relevance of financial info by providing managers the factor to convey to investors forward-looking, inside instruction (e. g. , on incoming collections from customers via the bad debt provision).On the new(prenominal) hand, the quality of financial learning is compromised by (i) the increasing difficulty of making reliable considers in a fastchanging, often libertine economy, and (ii) the frequent managerial mis pulmonary tuberculosis of estimates to manipulate financial tuition. Given the ever-increasing prevalence of estimates in chronicle entropy, whether these opposing forces result in an improvement in the quality of financial information or non is among the nearly fundamental issues in accounting. We see in this get a line he donation of accounting estimates infix in accruals to the quality of financial information, as smoothened by their utilizableness in the look forion of opening move hard funds rate of catamenias and benefit profit. Our broad out-of- assay foot races, reflecting both the statistical and economic importee of estimates, indicate that accounting estimates beyond those in workings corking items do non improve the shoution of falsify flows. Estimates do, however, improve the fortune telling of nigh categorys wage, though not of subsequent stratums net income. Our economic significance tests corroborate that accounting estimates do not improve inter limiting flow or earnings foretelling.We conclude that the usefulness of accounting estimates to investors is limited, and provide suggestions for improve their usefulness. 2 The Usefulness of Accounting Estimates For Predicting Cash Flows and Earnings 1. Introduction Financial statement information, be it equilibrate cruise items practically(prenominal) as net property, plant and equipment, goodwill and other intangibles, accounts receivable and inventories, or place income statement figures, such as revenues, pension expense, in- functioning R&D, or the recently expensed employee birth options, is bangingly establish on managerial estimates and projections.The economic condition of the enterprise and the consequences of its operations as portrayed by every(prenominal) quarter and annual financial bases argon therefore an intricate and ever changing web of facts and conjectures, where the dividing line among the 2 is virtuallyly dark to information users. With the menses move of accounting standard-setters in the U. S. and abroad toward motley magnitude fair-value stridement of assets and liabilities, the role of estimates and projections in financial reports will further increase.We ask in this study what is the outcome of the multitude of managerial estimates embedded in accounting data on the usefulness of financial information? strai ghtforward. The answer is far from On the one hand, estimates/projections be potentially useful to investors because they are the primary misbegots for managers to convey credibly forward-looking proprietary information to investors1. Thus, for example, the bad debt provision, if estimated properly, informs investors on expected emerging immediate payment flows from customers, restructuring charges address next day employee severance payments and plant closing costs, and the keenized portion of We say credibly primarily because federal agency Sarbanes-Oxley the staunchs CEO and chief financial officer stool to certify that information contained in the diaphragmic report fairly represents, in all material respects, the financial condition and results of operations of the issuer 3 software growth costs (SFAS 86) informs investors virtually development projects that passed successfully technological feasibility tests and are accordingly expected to arouse forthcoming revenues and earnings. 2 This potential contribution of managerial estimates to investors ssessment of future enterprise inter counter motley flows underlies the oft- quoted statement by the Financial Accounting Standard Board (FASB) in its Conceptual Framework about the superiority of accruals earnings aboutly ground on estimates oer the by and freehanded fact-based silver flows in call ining future enterprise gold flows Information about enterprise earnings based on accruals accounting globally provides a fall in indication of an enterprises present and go along ability to generate favorable currency flows than information limited to the financial aspects of property receipts and payments (FASB, 1978, p. IX).On the other hand, the contribution of estimates to the usefulness of financial information is counteracted by two major factors (i) Objective difficulties. In the flow rate volatile and largely unpredictable business environment, due to fast-changing market condi tions (deregulation, privatization, emerging economies) and rapid technological miscellaneas, it is increasingly difficult for managers to make reliable projections of business events. Consider, for example, the estimated future return on pension assetsa severalize component of the pension expense This estimate is essentially a prevision of the enormous- absorb slaying of cap markets.Are managers give way predictors of market action than investors? 3 Or, reflect on the generally large impairment charges of fixed assets and acquired intangibles (including goodwill) mandated by SFAS 121 and SFAS 142 The determination of these 2 Indeed, Aboody and Lev (1998) document a positive tie beam in the midst of chapiterized software development costs and future earnings. 3 Consider, for example, the 2001 pension foot keeps of iii financial institutions, Merrill Lynch, Bank of NewYork, and Charles Schwab, which report the following estimates of the expected returns on pension asset s 6. 60%, 10. 50%, and 9. 00%, on an individual basis (Zion, 2002). The wide range of estimates (6. 6%-10. 5%) of the long term movement of p all(prenominal)y markets reflects the inherently large un plasteredty (unreliability) of the pension expense estimate. 4 charges affects managers to estimate future notes flows from tangible and intangible assets. In todays highly competitive and contested markets the reliability of asset exchange flows forecasted over about(prenominal) grades is obviously questionable.Accordingly, the accounting estimates and projections underlying financial information introduce a considerable and unknown degree of noise, and perhaps bias to financial information, cl premature detracting from their usefulness. 4 (ii) Manipulation. Add to the above objective difficulties in generating reliable estimates the expected and frequently documented susceptibility of accounting estimates to managerial manipulation, and the consequent adverse meeting of es timates on the usefulness of financial information becomes apparent.Given that it is very difficult to settle up with manipulators of estimateseven if an estimate turns out ex post to be far off the mark, it is virtually impossible to prove that ex ante the estimate was intentionally manipulatedthere are no effective disincentives for managers to manipulate accounting estimates. Indeed, more an(prenominal) of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) enforcement cases alleging financial reporting manipulation concern misuse of estimates underlying accruals (e. g. Dechow et al. , 1996). Thus, the impact of estimates underlying accounting measurement and reporting military operations on the usefulness of financial information is an open question, to be seed in this study. The relevance of this examination cannot be overstated. Accounting estimates and projections underlie practically of Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) and clear 4 A case in point (Wall Street J ournal, August 4, 2004, p. c1) Investors in Travelers engage demand much than that ed umbrella protection from what has been raining on them since the caller-out was spun out from Citigroup in early 2002. Late last month, St. Paul Travelers Cos. , announced what Morgan Stanley termed a blockbuster reserve charge of $1. 625 billion. The charge was about twice as large as analysts have been expecting. The insurer cont arrests that the charge stems largely from the need to accede differing accounting treatments at the two companies Travelers and its acquisitionSt. Paul Cos. . It was just a reserve valuation adjustment, the company said.Sadly there attends to be little reason why Travelers executives didnt anticipate problems with St. Pauls insurance methodologies Mr. Benet Travelers chief financial officer saidwe recognized early on that there was a unlikeness in roughly of the methodologies to estimate reserves that would have to be address. (emphasis ours). Thus, different accounting methodologies apply to estimate the same reserves, all approve by auditors, give in a difference of $1. 625 billion. 5 around of standard-setters fourth dimension and efforts.Just consider the major issues addressed by the FASB in recent socio-economic classsfinancial instruments, employee stock options, fixed assets and goodwill impairment, and the valuation of acquired intangibles, to make out a fewall require major estimates and forecasts in the process of accounting measurement and reporting. If these and other accounting estimates do not contribute of importly to the usefulness of financial information, the efforts of accounting regulators, and even more importantly, the resources society devotes to the generation of estimates in the process of financial statement preparation and their auditing, are misdirected.Worse yet, if financial information users are led by the estimates-based accounting information to misallocate resources, an additional dead-weight c ost is imposed on society. We pay off and test the usefulness of estimates embedded in accrual earnings in call of their ability to predict enterprise performance. 5 This predictive use of financial information is central to security depth psychology and valuation and is withal a fundamental premise of the FASBs Conceptual Framework as indicated by the quote above. Future enterprise performance is importantly reflected by currency flows and earnings.Future cash flows are at the warmheartedness of asset and liabilities accounting valuation rules. Thus, for example, asset impairment (SFAS 144) is determined by expected cash flows, and the useful lives of acquired intangibles (SFAS 142) are a function of future cash flows. More fundamentally, asset or enterprise cash flows are postulated by economic theory as the major determinants of their value. Given a certain ambiguity about the specific definition of cash flows used by investors, we perform our tests with two widelyused and frequently positively charged cash flow constructs cash from operations (chief financial officer) and dislodge cash flows (FCF).Much of prior related research center on CFO. Free cash flows are central to 5 There are, of course, other uses of financial data, such as in contracting arrangements, which are not aimed at predicting future enterprise performance. 6 galore(postnominal) practitioners valuation representatives (e. g. Brealey and Myers, 2003), and play an important role in research too (e. g. , FCF is a primary diversifying in the valuation constructs of Feltham and Ohlson, 1995). Cash flow prospicience is therefore a predominant element of accounting measurements and practitioners valuation processes.Despite the prominence of cash flows in economic asset valuation mouldings, there is no denying that many investors and analysts are apply financial data to predict earnings. The underlying heuristics are somewhat obscured perhaps investors predict earnings prime(p renominal), and derive future cash flow estimates from the predicted earnings. In any case, earnings omen is paramount in practice, and we therefore also examine the usefulness of accounting estimates for the prophecy of earnings, both direct and net income.The focus of this study is on accounting estimates, but many of the estimates underlying financial information are not dis lastd in the financial reports. 6 We, therefore, focus in this study on accruals, most of which are based on estimates. In crabbed, we distinguish between accruals which are largely unaffected by estimates (changes in working outstanding items, excluding inventory), and accruals which are primarily based on estimates (most non-working uppercase accruals). This enables us to fasten on sharper inferences on the effect of estimates on the usefulness of financial information.We also analyze a little sample of incorruptibles with data on specific estimates which we split into repeat and non-recurring to separate noise (the non-recurring estimates) from information (the recurring estimates). Our empirical analysis is based on a sample of all non-financial Compustat blottos with the required dataranging from approximately 1,500 to 3,200 companies per yearand spanning the 6 For example, General Electric reports in its revenue recognition footnote that sundry(a) components of revenues derived from long-term projects are based on the estimated profitability of these projects.GE, however, does not break down keep down revenues into estimates and facts. 7 period 1988-2005. Our tests are conducted in ternary stages (1) In-sample, industry-by-industry, vaticinations of future enterprise cash flows and earnings, based on (a) up-to-date cash flows precisely (the bench mark), (b) earnings, and (c) the set of cash flows, the change in working heavy(p) (excluding inventory), and unhomogeneous components of accruals based on estimates. here(predicate) we follow the reasoning backwar dion procedures of Barth, Cram, and Nelson (2001) and find, on more recent data, results which are generally consistent with Barth et al.This is our divagation point. (2) Out-of sample firm specific prognostics of future cash flows and earnings development the industry specific logical argument estimates of the in-sample regressions. The focus of this analysis is on the improvement in the quality of foresights brought about by the addition of estimates (accruals) to the predictors. We and then predict cash flow from operations, free cash flows, net income to begin with marvelous items, and run income over different panoramas one year ahead, second year ahead, aggregate two years ahead, and aggregate three years ahead.Our results show that accounting estimates do not improve the prodigy of future cash flows (both in operation(p) and free cash flows), compared with divinations based on original CFO and the change in working capital excluding inventory. However, accruals do improve next years prognostic of net and operating income. Notably, cash flow predictions based on modern earnings only are importantly inferior to those generated by certain CFO, contrary to Kim and Kross (2005). In our small sample analysis, neither recurring nor nonrecurring estimates improved substantially the predictions of either cash flows or earnings.The bottom lineaccounting estimates beyond those in working capital items (except inventory) do not improve the prediction of cash flows. 8 (3) Finally, we examine the economic significance of estimates. These tests complement stage two, which is based on the statistical significance of differences in the quality of alternative predictors. Since it is difficult to gauge economic significance from statistical significance, we perform various portfolio tests, where portfolios are constructed from predicted cash flows and earnings based on various predictors, some of which are based on estimates.The aberrant returns on thes e portfolios, generated by alternative predictors, are our gauge of economic significance. The focus here is on comparing the returns on portfolios constructed from predictions based on up-to-the-minute cash flows only (the benchmark), with returns on portfolios constructed from predictions based on current earnings or current cash flows plus changes in working capital and estimates. The results from these tests generally corroborate the out-of-sample prediction tests.In practically all our portfolio tests the model that uses current operating cash flows only to predict firm performance generates higher abnormal returns than models which add estimates to the prediction process used for the portfolio formation, though most of these returns are insignificant. Furthermore, the portfolios constructed from predictions based on current cash flows only yield abnormal returns with generally lower standard deviation than the alternative portfolios which include earnings or estimates among t he predictors. We precaution against sweeping utmost stages.We examine the usefulness of accounting estimates in terms of predictive ability with respect to future firm performance. Accounting information is used for other purposes too (contracting, national accounting), for which estimates may be useful. Furthermore, our prediction tests are based on fairly simple models. Users may be apply different, more cultivate models where estimates could prove to be useful. 9 Nevertheless, we believe that our findings draw attention to the significant vulnerability of financial information from the multitude of underlying estimates and projections, and to the urgent need for improving the eliability of estimates, on which we comment in the concluding section. The outrank of discussion is as follows member 2 relates our findings to available research, and constituent 3 outlines our research design. Section 4 describes our sample, and Section 5 reports our prediction tests. Section 6 i nforms on a battery of robustness checks, and Section 7 focuses on a subsample with an extended set of accounting estimates. Section 8 reports our portfolio (economic significance) tests, while Section 9 concludes the study. 2.Relation to Available Research Our study interfaces with several active research areas, and below we comment on the relation between our work and various representative studies. We are not familiar with empirical studies which evaluate the impact of accounting estimates on the informativeness of financial information, but there is a substantial public figure of studies that examine the contribution of accruals to the prediction of future cash flows and other variants. These studies can be roughly classified into regression-based (in-sample) analyses, and out-of-sample prediction tests.An example of the former is the comprehensive work by Barth, Cram and Nelson (2001), who regress CFO on relapseged value of CFO and components of accruals (primarily the chan ges in accounts receivable, inventories, and accounts payable, as well as dispraise & amortization and other accruals). The authors report (p. 27) that distributively accrual component reflects different information relating to future cash flowsand is significant with the predicted sign in predicting future cash flows, incremental to current cash flows. Note that 10 predictive ability is assessed in this and uniform studies by the significance of the estimated accruals coefficients and by the improvement inR 2. 7 An interesting extension of the regression strand is provided by Subramanyam and Venkatachalam (2007) who examine the relative instructive power of earnings and cash flows with respect to an ex post measure of the intrinsic value of fair-mindedness which uses Ohlsons (1995) equity valuation framework, based on realized value of earnings and book set.The authors argue that such measurement of equity set avoids the necessity to assume capital market efficiency, as in Dechows (1994) study relating accruals to contemporaneous stock returns. Dechow documents a significant association between accruals and stock returns, but the implications of such association for market efficiency are challenged by Sloans (1996) findings of square(p) return reversals (market inefficiency) following native accruals.Subramanyam and Venkatachalam (2007) conclude that operating cash flows are more powerfully associated with future cash flows than earnings, and that current earnings are more strongly associated with future earnings than cash flows. Regressing the ex-post equity measure on earnings and cash flows indicates that earnings exhibit a higher explanatory power than cash flows. By and large, the in-sample regression studies suggest that accruals are associated with subsequent cash flows and contemporaneous equity value, a finding we largely update and corroborate in the initial stage of our analysis (Section 5. ). However, as is argued in Section 5. 1, in-sa mple regressions are not prediction tests, and may even provide misleading inferences concerning prediction power. We move, therefore, to out-of-sample tests. An early and innovative out-of-sample prediction test is Finger (1994), who concludes from a sample of 50 companies with long historic data that cash flow is marginally superior to 7 Bowen et al. (1986) and Greenberg et al. (1986) perform alike regression-based, in-sample predictions. 11 earnings for short-term predictions and performs similar to earnings in long-term cash flow predictions.However, time-series and cross-sectional out-of-sample short-term prediction tests by Lorek and Willinger (1996) and Kim and Kross (2005), respectively, show that current earnings predict more accurately future cash flows than current cash flows do. Thus, a mixed picture emerges from the out-of-sample tests, calling for further research. Note also that most introductory studies, in- and out-of-sample, focus on the prediction of cash from o perations, despite the fact that free cash flows (a measure include in our tests) is frequently used by analysts and investors.Barth, Beaver, Hand and Landsman (2005) provide an interesting perspective on the usefulness of accruals. Using the valuation framework of Feltham and Ohlson (1995, 1996), they examine the ability to predict equity value of various disaggregations of earnings aggregate earnings, cash flows and core accruals, as well as cash flows and quaternary major components of accruals. The prediction methodology is out-of-sample in a particular sense cross-sectional valuation models are run for for each one(prenominal) year (equity values regressed on contemporaneous earnings disaggregations), excluding each time a particular sample firm.The equity value of that firm is then predicted from the estimated coefficients of the models. Barth et al. (2005, p. 5) find evidence of some reduction in mean prediction errors from disaggregating earnings into cash flows and mea t accruals, and some additional reduction from disaggregating total accruals into its four major components median value prediction errors generally give birth disaggregation of earnings only into cash flows and total accruals. Overall, these findings vary considerably by industry, and appear to indicate a more consistent success for the cash flows and total accruals model than for the cash flows and disaggregated accruals model. 8 8 Studies such as Bathke et al. (1989) and Lorek et al. (1993) also perform out-of-sample prediction tests. 12 The substantial body of research on the accruals anomaly initiated by Sloan (1996) is tangentially related to our study.This research establishes that accruals are often mis envisioned by investors large (small) accruals firms are contemporaneously overvalued (undervalued) in capital markets, and these misvaluations are largely reverse within a couple of years. Notably, much of the accruals anomaly resides in small, thinly traded firms, which a re unattractive to most institutional investors (Lev and Nissim, 2006), a fact that contributes significantly to the persistence of this anomaly. It is important to note that our focus in this study is different from the ccruals anomaly research we do not examine investors perceptions of accruals, and the consequences of such perceptions. Rather, we focus on the contribution of accruals and by implication of the embedded estimates to the primary role of financial informationassisting users in predicting future enterprise performance. The short-term market inefficiencies highlighted by the accruals anomaly are, of course, worth noting, but they do not inform much on the presumed role of accrualsto improve the prediction of enterprise performance.Stated differently, while extreme accruals are often mispriced contemporaneously by investors, a misperception corrected fairly shortly thereafter, accounting accruals in general, prevalent in every financial report, may still enhance the mul ti-year prediction of firm performance. It is this fundamental role of accruals and their underlying estimates that is the main theme of our study. The lack of convergence of the extant accruals usefulness research makes it very difficult to draw firm conclusions.Some studies are in-sample, while others are out-of-sample some researchers relate accruals to contemporaneous returns or equity values whereas others to future values. Some predict cash flows while others predict equity values based on models utilise forecasted or realized residual earnings. Our main contribution to extant research is the focus on the estimates embedded in accruals and the provision of certain closure to the usefulness of 13 accruals issue. We distinguish between accruals which are largely based on facts and those primarily reflecting estimates, to focus on the usefulness of accounting estimates.Our main tests are out-of-sample predictions, replicating what most investors actually dopredict, with no ex po st information (as implicitly assumed by in-sample studies), various versions of future earnings and cash flows. The comprehensiveness of our predicted performance measures (two versions of earnings and two of cash flows), and the number of future periods examined (years t+1, t+2, and aggregate next two years and next three years) enables us, we believe, to draw general conclusions about the contribution of estimates to firm performance rediction. Furthermore, our study is the first, we believe, to examine both the statistical and economic performance of accruals-based prediction models. Inferences from statistical significance are sometimes difficult to draw and generalize. Consider, for example, the Barth, Beaver, Hand and Landsman (2005, p. 5) conclusion we find evidence of some reduction in mean prediction errors from disaggregating earnings (emphasis ours). While decidedly interesting, this conclusion leaves open the important question of how material is some reduction?Is it, for example, sufficiently large to support the current move of the FASB and IASB toward increased reliance on estimates in financial reports (fair value, stock option expensing, and so on )? Statistical significance coupled with economic significance, as provided below, allows for a more comprehensive evaluation of the evidence. 9 The focus on accounting estimates, the out-ofsample methodology, and the examination of both statistical and economic significance, all bringing certain closure to the research question, is our main contribution. 3. Research Design Examples of studies including economic significance tests are Ou and Penman (1989), Stober (1992), Abarbanell and Bushee (1998), and Piotroski (2000). 14 Our research design consists of three stages (a) in-sample association tests of cash flows (earnings) regressed on lagged values of these variables and accruals, (b) out-of-sample forecasts of cash flows (earnings) based on these variables and accruals and (c) calculation of h edge future excess returns on portfolios constructed from the out-of-sample predicted cash flows (earnings) in stage (b).We conduct the first stage as a link to and departure from previous research by estimating cross-sectional in-sample regressions as in the Barth, Cram and Nelson (2001) study (BCN hereafter). We use several prediction constructs, primarily to distinguish between accruals largely based on facts and those based on estimates. At one extreme of the accruals disaggregation we classify all the accruals in the operations section of the cash flow statement into working capital changes excluding inventory (? WC*) and the remaining accruals, termed estimates (EST) EARNINGSCash from work Capital Operations Change excluding (CFO) inventory (? WC*) Estimates (EST) ACCRUALS Working capital items with the exception of inventory, such as accounts payable and short-term marketable securities, are generally not materially impacted by managerial estimates,10 whereas 10 The accounts receivable change, net of the provision, is an exception, since it is subject to an estimate. But this estimate is included in our second accruals component, EST. 15 most of the remaining accruals are in fact pure estimates (e. g. , depreciation and amortization, bad debt provision, in-process R&D).At the other end of the accruals disaggregation we separate out the change in inventory (? INV) from the aggregate estimates (EST), disposed(p) the evidence (e. g. , Thomas and Zhang, 2002) that much of the accruals anomaly resides in inventory, probably due to intentional and unintentional misestimations of this item. We further break out depreciation and amortization (D&A) and deferred taxes (DT) from other estimates because the identification of these items is possible from Compustat data over the entire sample period. This disaggregation is render thus EARNINGS CFO WC* (minus inventory) ?Inventory (? INV) Dep. & Amortization (D&A) ACCRUALS Def. Taxes (DT) Other estimates (EST*) The various components of accruals along with cash from operations (CFO),11 depicted in the two exhibits above are the in restricted variables in the estimation models underlying our in-sample predictions. We add to these variables the cash flow statement figure of capital expenditures (CAPEX), since the dependent variables in our models are future cash flows or earnings, which are generally affected by current investment (capital expenditures). We believe 11We measure CFO as in Barth et al. (2001), namely net cash flow from operating activities, adjusted for the accrual portion of extraordinary items and discontinued operations. 16 that the addition of capital expenditures to the regressors improves the specification of the insample prediction models, and sharpens our focus on the relative performance of the accruals components, our focus of study. Indeed, the capital expenditures variable is statistically significant in most of our annual in-sample predictions models. 12 3. 1 Predict ion tests Our prediction tests take the following general form.We predict two versions of cash flows (cash from operations and free cash flows) and two constructs of earnings (net income before extraordinary items and operating income) in years t+1 and t+2, as well as in aggregate years t+1 & t+2, and t+1 through t+3. To gain insight into the usefulness of estimates in predicting firm performance, we use five prediction models with increasing disaggregation of accruals (regressors) mannikin 1 current CFO onlythe benchmark model sit down 2 current net income (NI) only stumper 3 current CFO and the change in working capital items excluding inventory (?WC*)namely, largely fact-based regressors Model 4 current CFO, the change in working capital items excluding inventory ? WC*, and total remaining accruals, largely based on estimates (EST) and Model 5 current CFO, the change in working capital items excluding inventory ? WC*, the change in inventories (? INV), depreciation & amortizat ion (D&A), the change in deferred taxes (DT), and all other estimates (EST*)the most disaggregated model. The purpose is to examine whether the gradual addition of components of accruals 12 For robustness, we reran our predictions (report in turn off 3) without capital expenditures, and conclude that one of our inferences changes in the absence of capital expenditures. 17 estimates to current cash flows (the benchmark) improves the prediction of future cash flows or earnings. Increasing the disaggregation of accruals should, in general, enhance the quality of prediction (from model 1 to 5), since the individual accrual components are allowed to have different effects (multiples) on the predicted values. We examine model 2 because the predictor, earnings, is a sum-up accounting variable that has been extensively investigated for its information content and has been used in most prior studies (e. . BCN and Kim and Kross 2005). It is important to note that the cross-sectional estimat es of the five in-sample prediction models are obtained for 2-digit countersink industry groups. These industry specific estimates make the implicit assumption of constancy of coefficients across firms reasonably tenable. We consume the second stage of our research design by using the industry specific estimated coefficients from each of the above five prediction models to cipher firm specific predicted values for cash from operations (CFO), free cash flows (FCF), net income (NI) and operating income (OI).We then calculate firm specific prediction errors as the difference between the actual and predicted values of each variable examined. The following examples of the prediction of free cash flows (FCF) will crystalise our prediction procedures. A. Prediction of next years free cash flows, FCF (t+1) (a) Benchmark Model using CFO only (example for 1990) 1. Estimate cross-sectionally for each 2-digit industry the following regression FCF (89) = ? + ? CFO(88) + ? . , 2. Predict for each firm in a given 2-digit industry EFCF (90) = ? + ? CFO(89) using the previously determined industry specific estimated coefficients. . restrict prediction error for each firm in a given 2-digit industry EFCF (90) . FCF (90) 18 Here we predict 1990 free cash flows (EFCF(90) from current cash from operations, CFO (89) (and capital expenditures). First, for each 2-digit industry we regress cross-sectionally free cash flows of 1989 on CFO in 1988, and obtain the estimated coefficients ? and . ? Those coefficients are then used to predict firm specific free cash flows (EFCF) in 1990, using the firms actual CFO of 1989. Then, a firm specific prediction error is determined by comparing the firms actual 1990 FCF with the predicted one.The same procedure is repeated for every firm and sample year. (b) Restricted Estimates, Model 4 (example for 1990) Estimate cross-sectionally for each 2-digit industry FCF (89) = ? + ? 1CFO(88) + ? 2? WC * (88) + ? 3EST (88) + ? . The subsequent predic tion and error determinations are done as in (a) above. Here we predict 1990 free cash flows from CFO, ? WC* (change in working capital items excluding inventory), EST (estimates), and capital expenditures (not shown in the equation). First, a cross-sectional regression of 1989 free cash flows is run on the 1988 values of CFO, ? WC*, and EST, yielding coefficients ? ? 1, ? 2, and ? 3. Then, firm specific 1990 free cash flows are predicted, using the four industry specific estimated coefficients and the 1989 actual values of CFO, ? WC*, and EST. Finally, these 1990 FCF predictions are compared with the 1990 actual free cash flows to determine the prediction error. The same procedure is repeated for each firm and sample year. (c) Expanded Estimates, Model 5 (example for 1990) Estimate cross-sectionally for each 2-digit industry FCF (89) = ? + ? 1 CFO(88) + ? 2 ? WC * (88) + ? 3? INV (88) + ? 4 D & A(88) + ? 5 DT (88) + ? 6 EST * (88) + ? . 19The prediction and error determinations are done as in (a) above. Here we predict 1990 free cash flows from 1989 CFO, capital expenditures, and the disaggregated set of estimates (see second diagram at the beginning of this Section). Once more, we run by industry a cross-sectional regression of 1989 FCF on the 1988 values of the independent variables, estimating the ? and ? 1 ? 6 coefficients (and a ? 7 coefficient for 1988 capital expenditures). The firm-specific 1990 free cash flows are predicted using these industry specific coefficients and the actual values of the independent variables in 1989.Computation of the 1990 FCF prediction error follows. B. Prediction of year 2 free cash flows, FCF (t+2) Benchmark Model (example for 1992) 1. Estimate cross-sectionally by 2-digit industry FCF (90) = ? + ? 1CFO(88) + ? 2. Predict for each firm in a given 2-digit industry EFCF (92) = ? + ? 1CFO(90) 3. Prediction Error for each firm in a given 2-digit industry FCF (92) EFCF (92) This is the prediction of free cash flows in t+2. It follows the earlier procedure with one difference Here the cross-sectional estimate (first equation) and the forecast (second equation) involve a two-year lag (e. . , FCF in 1990 regressed on CFO of 1988). Same procedure is performed for each firm and sample year. The expanded prediction models incorporating disaggregated accruals follow steps (b) and (c), above. We also predict free cash flows for aggregate years t+1 plus t+2, and t+1 through t+3. These predictions are based on the procedures draw above, except that aggregated future free cash flows are substituted for single year free cash flows as left wing-hand variables in the various models. The procedure demonstrate above for FCF is also used to predict cash from operations 20 CFO) in t+1, t+2, and aggregated future years, and to predict earnings in t+1, t+2 and aggregated future years. Two versions of earningsnet income before extraordinary items (NI) and operating income (OI)are predicted. The various prediction models for earnings are identical to those of free cash flows described above, except that earnings in t+1 and t+2 are substituted for FCF in those models. To summarize, we perform out-of-sample predictions of two versions of cash flows and two versions of earnings from current values of CFO, current values of NI, and CFO plus changes in working capital and various combinations of accruals.To evaluate the quality of the out-of-sample predictions, we compute summary measures of prediction errors derived from the firm- and year-specific estimated errors the mean and median sign-language(a) prediction errors indicating the bias in the forecasts, and the mean and median absolute prediction errors which abstract from the sign of the error and indicate forecast accuracy. The firm-specific prediction error in a given year is computed as the realized value of cash flow or earnings minus the predicted cash flow or earnings, divided by average total assets in year t. . 2 Portfolio analysis The thir d stage of our research design is motivated by Poon and Granger (2003, p. 491) who note Instead of song to make some statistical inference, prediction model performance could be judged on some measures of economic significance. We interpret their statement as saying that we should not desire solely on the statistical significance of our prediction errors calculated in stage two but should also examine and perhaps even rely more on measures of economic significance.To gauge the economic significance of the contribution of estimates to the usefulness of financial information we perform a series of portfolio tests focusing on the incremental stock returns generated by the estimates-based prediction models. 21 Essentially, we use the out-of-sample predicted values of cash flows (CFO and FCF) and alternatively of earnings (NI and OI), obtained in the second stage of our analysis, to form portfolios.Specifically, for each sample year we rank all firms (across all industries) on predict ed firm-specific cash flows or earnings (four rankings, two for cash flows and two for earnings), scaled by average total assets in the end of year t. We then form ten portfolios from each annual ranking and compute risk-adjusted (size & book-to-market adjusted) returns from holding these portfolios over several future periods. In assessing the performance of the various predictors (CFO, NI, ? WC*, accruals of estimates), we primarily focus on a zero-investment (hedge) strategy going long (investing) in the tallness ortfolio (the 10% of firms with the largest (scaled) predicted cash flows or earnings), and shorting (selling) the bottom portfolio (10% of firms with the lowest predicted cash flows or earnings). The abnormal returns on these zeroinvestment portfolios indicate the economic contribution to investors of using accounting estimates as predictors. Thus, if estimates are useful to investors then portfolios constructed from predictions based on current cash flows and estimate s-based accruals should consistently best portfolios formed from predictions based on current cash flows only.It should be noted that if markets are efficient concerning the information in accrualsa big if, in light of Sloan (1996)and if investors select securities using procedures similar to our industry-based prediction models specified above, then our subsequent portfolio abnormal returns should be roughly zero. Our purpose in these portfolio tests, however, is not to examine market efficiency, rather to compare the performance of portfolio woof procedures with the estimates-based accruals against similar procedures without accruals (based on past cash flows only).We are thus focusing on the with- and without-accruals comparisons, being doubter about market efficiency. Stated differently, the comparative abnormal hedge returns across the 22 five prediction models, rather than the statistical significance of those returns, is our focus of analysis. 4. Sample Selection and Descri ptive Statistic We obtain accounting data from the 2006 Compustat annual industrial, full coverage, and research files, and use data from the statement of cash flows because collins and Hribar (2002) suggest that such data are preferable to accruals derived from the balance sheet.Since reporting a statement of cash flows was mandated by SFAS 95 in 1987, our accounting data span the period 1988 to 2005. 13 In the in-sample regression analysis, each year from 1988 to 2004 is a predictor year (generating the independent variables) while each year from 1989 to 2005 is a predicted year (providing the dependent variables). Thus, 17 in-sample annual regressions are estimated for each industry. Our sample selection procedure is as follows. We start with 75,571 observations with values for NI, CFO, ? WC*, INV, D&A, DT, EST, EST* and CAPEX for the current year, year t, and for NI over a three-year horizon, t-1 to t+1. Firms with all fiscal year ends are included. We control for outliers by fo llowing the procedures in Barth et al. (2001). Thus, after eliminating the top and bottom one percentile of current NI and CFO we are left with 73,324 firm-year observations. By excluding observations with market value of equity or sales of less than $10 million, or with share prices below $1, to eliminate economically marginal firms, the number of observations decreases to 51,301.By deleting observations with studentized residuals greater than 3 or less than -3, we are left with 50,288 observations. Since we conduct industry-byindustry in-sample regression analysis we require each industry to have a minimum of 600 observations over the period 1988 to 2004. This criterion reduces the sample to its final size of 13 Valid statement of cash flows data for the year 1987 are available for a relatively small number of firms not enough to do a meaningful industry-by-industry analysis. Thus, we do not use 1987 data. 23 41,124 observations.We obtain stock returns data for the portfolio analy sis from the 2006 CRSP files. 14 accede 1 provides summary statistics (variables are scaled by average total assets) and a correlation matrix for out test variables. gore A shows that depreciation and amortization (D&A) constitutes the bulk of the estimates underlying accruals (EST) The mean (median) of D&A is 0. 054 (0. 047), close to the mean (median) of EST, 0. 059 (0. 052). The mean of net estimates (EST*), excluding D&A and deferred taxes, is quite large, 0. 019, and is driven mainly by large positive values, as the median value of 0. 04, Q1 of 0. 000 and Q3 of 0. 019 imply. CFO has the lowest while NI has the highest variability (standard deviations of 0. 129 versus 0. 149) among the various earnings and cash flow variables. In panel B all correlations are significant at the 5% level or emend. We note the high negative correlations of our estimates variables, EST and EST*, with the income variables, NI and OI. However, the correlations of EST and EST* with both the cash flo w variables, CFO and FCF, are much lower positive for EST and negative for EST*. 4 We repeated all of our analyses with a sample without any outlier removal, namely where we only require non- missing values for the key variables, and at least 600 observations in each 2-digit SIC over the sample period 19882004. This sample consists of 65,178 observations and is substantially larger than the sample of 41,124 observations used in the analysis reported below. We find that for many industries the R-squares in the in-sample regressions are higher for the un-truncated data than for the truncated data.The forecast error results are essentially identical to the results from the truncated sample in terms of inferences but the errors are larger. The portfolio abnormal returns results exhibit similar patterns to the results from truncated data. Overall, the un-truncated data yield very similar results to those of the truncated data reported below. 24 5. Empirical Findings Prediction Tests 5. 1 arrange one In-sample Regressions Table 2 reports cross-sectional annual regressions, by industry, of CFO (cash from operations) on lagged values of CFO and earnings components (Model 5 in Section 3).The reported coefficient estimates for each industry are the means of the yearly coefficients over the 17 year period, 1988 to 2004. The significance of these mean coefficients is based on (nonreported) t-statistics calculated using the mean and standard errors of the 17 yearly coefficients, as in Fama and MacBeth (1973). We report the results for the CFO regressions so that they can be compared to the CFO results reported by BCN. The, in-sample regression results for FCF, NI and OI are very similar to those reported in Table 2. It is discernable that in each of the twenty-three ndustries in Table 2 the lagged CFO and ? WC* (change in working capital minus inventory) are highly significant. In the majority of the industries, ? INV (inventory change) is also significant, as is D&A. Ho wever, DT (deferred taxes) and EST* (other accruals estimates) are significant for about half of the industries only. These results are quite consistent with BCNs results reported in their Table 6, Panel B (note that the sum of our DT and EST* variables is the OTH variable in BCN). The fairly large R2s, ranging across industries from 0. 29 to 0. 71, are also consistent with the R2s reported by BCN.Thus, the BCN regression results over the period 1987 to 1996 hold well over our durable period, 1988-2004. Overall, the estimates indicate a strong association between CFO and lagged earnings components, raising expectations about strong out-of-sample performance as well. However, it is important to note that a regression analysis of a given variable on lagged values of that variable along with other data, as frequently conducted in accounting and finance research, is not a conclusive test of predictive ability. As noted in Poon and Grangers (2003, p. 25 92) survey In all forecast evalua tions, it is important to distinguish in-sample and out-ofsample forecasts. In-sample forecast, which is based on parameters estimated using all data in the sample, implicitly assumes parameter estimates are stable through time. In practice, time variation of parameter estimates is a critical issue in forecasting. A good forecasting model should be one that can withstand the robustness of an out-of-sample test, a test design that is closer to reality. In our analyses of empirical findings we focus our attention on studies that implement out-of-sample forecasts. A dramatic example of misplaced inferences move on the basis of regression analysis has been recently provided by Goyal and Welch (2007). Their focus is on the prediction of stock market returns based on a variety of variables suggested by prior studies (e. g. dividend yield, earnings-price ratio, book-to-market ratio), using in-sample regression models. subsequently a comprehensive analysis, Goyal and Welch conclude that t hese models have predicted poorly both in-sample and out-of-sample for thirty years now these models seem unstable, as diagnosed by their out-of-sample predictions nd other statistics and these models would not have helped an investor with access only to available information to profitably time the market (Abstract). This important insight motivates our primary analysis which focuses on out-of-sample prediction tests. In the case of predicting stock returns, Goyal and Welchs concern, in-sample regression results are generally weak and it is therefore not impress that the out-of-sample predictions of Goyal and Welch perform poorly too.In contrast, in our case of predicting cash flows and earnings, the in-sample regressions (Table 2) perform well, so, whether the more realistic out-of-sample predictions of cash flows and earnings perform equally well is an important empirical issue which we examine next. 26 5. 2 Stage two Out-of-sample Prediction Tests Table 3 summarizes our main out -of-sample prediction findings. Recall that we predict four key performance indicators cash from operations (CFO) free cash flows, defined as CFO minus capital expenditures (FCF) net income before extraordinary items (NI) and operating income (OI).There are four prediction horizons next year, second year ahead, aggregate next two years, and aggregate next three years. Five prediction models are examined (they were discussed and demonstrated in Section 3), where the predictive (independent) variables are (1) CFO onlythe benchmark model, (2) NI only, (3) CFO and the annual change in working capital items excluding inventory (? WC*), (4) CFO plus the change in working capital items excluding inventory (? WC*), as well as the total remaining accruals (EST) which are largely estimates based, including the change in inventory, and (5) our most disaggregated model CFO, ?WC*, the change in inventories, depreciation and amortization, deferred taxes, and all remaining estimates. Current capit al expenditure is included as an additional variable in each of the five models. We report in Table 3 four summary statistics for the prediction errors of our five models the pooled firm-specific mean absolute error (MAER) of each of the five models, the pooled mean signed error, or bias (MER), the mean R2s from annual regressions of firm-specific actual values of future cash flows or earnings on the corresponding predicted values, and the average over the years of Theils U-statistics. 5 We indicate with an ampersand (&), asterisk (*) or a hash () the pooled mean absolute prediction errors (MAER) which are significantly different 15 The reported Theils U-statistic is the average of the yearly U-statistics. Theils U is defined as the square root of ?(actual-forecast)2/? (actual)2. The U statistic can range from zero to one, with zero implying a perfect forecast. Thus, models generating better predictions should have lower U statistics. 27 between Models 1 and 2, Models 1 and 3, and M odels 3 and 4, and Models 3 and 5, respectively. 6 We have also computed the sample median signed errors, median absolute errors, and root mean square errors. Results from these indicators are very similar to those reported in Table 3 (we comment in the text on the occasional differences). Below are the main inferences we draw from Table 3, and additional analyses 1. Prediction of cash flows. Considering the prediction of cash from operations (CFO) and free cash flows (FCF)left two quadruples of columns in Table 3we note that the predictions derived from net income only (Model 2) are always significantly inferior to the predictions based on cash from operations only (Model 1).This is true across the four forecast horizons and the four error summary statistics. For example, in predicting one-year-ahead cash from operations (top left panel), the MAER, MER and Theils U are lower for Model 1 than for Model 2 (0. 056 vs. 0. 062, 0. 001 vs. 0. 003, and 0. 58 vs. 0. 64, respectively), whil e the R2 of Model 1 is higher than that of Model 2 (0. 46 vs. 0. 37). The difference in the MAERs is statistically significant, as indicted by the & sign. This pattern is evident across all eight panels reporting predictions of cash from operations and free cash flows for various horizons.Thus, for one- to three-year forecast horizons, current cash from operations is a better predictor of future cash from operations and free cash flows than current net income. This result is incommensurable with Kim and Kross (2005) findings that in one-year-ahead predictions of cash flows current earnings performs better than current cash flows. 17 16 completely the absolute forecast errors (MAER) in Table 3 are statistically significant, with p-values of 0. 01 or better. The majority of the signed errors (MER) are also significant at p-values of 0. 1 or better, and many are statistically significant at least at p-values of 0. 05. The following signed errors are insignificant Model 1 in forecasti ng Years 12 CFO, Models 1 and 3 in forecasting Years 1-3 CFO, and Models 2, 4 and 5 in forecasting Years 1-3 OI. 17 It is important to note that Kim and Kross (2005) use balance sheet items to calculate cash from operations while we use statement of cash flows data. We were able to replicate the out-of-sample prediction results of Kim and 28Moving on to Model 3, (predictors CFO and the change in working capital items minus inventory), we note that the CFO and FCF predictions derived from current CFO only (Model 1) under-perform predictions based on current CFO and the change in working capital items excluding inventory, ? WC*. Thus, the mean absolute errors of Model 3 are significantly lower than those of Model 1 in all CFO and FCF panels, except in the FCF panel for the aggregate next three years horizon (bottom FCF panel). 18 The reported R2s and Theils U statistics also indicate the under-performance of Model 1 relative to Model 3.For example, in predicting one-yearahead cash fro m operations (top left panel), the MAER and Theils U are lower for Model 3 than for Model 1 (0. 054 vs. 0. 056, and 0. 56 vs. 0. 58, respectively), while the R2 of Model 3 is higher than that of Model 1 (0. 50 vs. 0. 46). Thus, for one- to three-year forecast horizons, the total change in working capital items excluding inventory is incrementally informative over current cash flows. This is relevant for our focus on the usefulness of accounting estimates, because the working capital items, excluding inventory, and with the exception of accounts receivable, are largely free of estimates.We now move to examine the contribution of accounting estimates to cash flow prediction. We do this by comparing the performance of Models 4 and 5 to that of Model 3, where Model 3 becomes now our benchmark given its superior performance up to this point. We note that CFO and FCF predictions derived from Model 4 (based on CFO, the change in working capital items excluding inventory (? WC*), as well as all other accruals including the change in inventory) and Model 5 (based on CFO, ? WC*, the change in inventories, depreciation and amortization, Kross using balance sheet items for our sample period.Accordingly, the difference in the results between the two studies is due to the data used. As shown by Collins and Hribar (2002), the cash from operations, and accruals derivation from the statement of cash flows is preferable. 18 Note that despite the very small difference between the MAERs of Models 1 and 3, the mean differences are statistically significant at the 0. 05 level or better (see asterisks). 29 deferred taxes, and all remaining accruals) equally perform or under-perform the predictions from Model 3 (based on CFO and ?WC*). Specifically, the mean absolute errors of Model 3 are significantly lower than or equal to the mean absolute errors of Models 4 and 5 in all the CFO and FCF panels. Furthermore, the reported MERs, R2s and Theils U statistics are also consistent with th e under-performance of Models 4 and 5 relative to Model 3. For example, in predicting one-year-ahead cash from operations (top left panel), the MAER, MER and Theils U for Model 3 are either equal to or lower than for Models 4 and 5 (0. 054 vs. 0. 054 and 0. 055 0. 001 vs. 0. 02 and 0. 002 and 0. 56 vs. 0. 57 and 0. 57, respectively), while the R2 of Model 3 is equal to or higher than the R2s of Models 4 and 5 (0. 50 vs. 0. 50 and 0. 49). Accordingly, we conclude that for one- to three-year forecast horizons the accounting estimates embedded in accruals, either as a lump sum or disaggregated, do not improve cash flow predictions over current cash from operations and the change in working capital (excluding inventory). 19 Conclusions Neither total earnings, nor disaggregated estimates-based accruals ystematically improve the prediction of cash flows (CFO or FCF) over the predictions based on current CFO and the change in working capital (excluding inventory). This finding is inconsist ent with the FASBs conceptual stipulation that Information about enterprise earningsgenerally provides a better indication of an enterprises present and continuing ability to generate favorable cash flows than information limited to the financial aspects of cash receipts and payments (FASB, 1978, p. IX), though our data start ten years after this statement was issued 2. Prediction of earnings.The two quadruples of columns to the right of Table 3 report prediction performance statistics for net income (NI) and operating income (OI). Here, the 19 These inferences do not change when we examine median signed and absolute prediction errors (available on request). 30 predictions derived from net income (Model 2) significantly outperform those based on cash from operations only (Model 1), for the one-year-ahead forecasts. For example, in predicting next years operating income (top right panel), the MAER of Model 2 is significantly lower than that of Model 1 (0. 057 vs. 0. 061).The R2s and Theils Us maintain the stronger performance of Model 2, for one-year predictions. Interestingly, Model 2s predictions are significantly inferior to Model 1s in the two-years-ahead and aggregate next three years predictions (second and bottom NI and OI panels). For example, in predicting aggregate three-years-ahead operating income (bottom right panel), the MAER of Model 2 is significantly higher than that of Model 1 (0. 257 vs. 0. 253). Thus, for a one-year-ahead forecast horizon, current net income is a better predictor of future net income and operating income than current cash from operations. 0 Of the five models examined for earnings predictions, the best performer is Model 4 with three variables CFO, ? WC* (change in working capital excluding inventory), and EST (all other accruals)for all forecast horizons. Intriguingly, Model 5, where EST is disaggregated to several estimates-based accruals, is somewhat inferior to Model 4. Apparently, predicting from disaggregated accruals results in noisy forecasts. Conclusions Earnings is a better predictor of near-term earnings than cash flow.Accounting accruals, when disaggregated to working capital items and other accruals, improve further the prediction of operating and net income. No further improvement is achieved from a finer disaggregation of accruals. 6. Robustness Checks 1. How good are our prediction models? 20 Our prediction models are admittedly The median absolute errors are lower for Model 2 than for Model 1 in all NI and OI panels except in the bottom two panels (for the aggregate next two and three years horizons). 31 simplethey obviously abstract from many of the complexities of real life security analysis.Nevertheless, the R2s in Table 3derived from annual regressions of actual values (future cash flows or earnings) on predicted valuesare quite large. Thus, for example, for next years predictions (top panels of Table 3), the R2 range is 0. 33-0. 58. As expected, the R2s drop for second year predi ctions, yet they are still in the reasonable range of 0. 21-0. 37. Thus, despite their simplicity, our prediction models perform reasonably well. 2. Trimming extreme prediction errors. The results of Table 3 are after trimming the top 2% of the absolute forecast errors.We also computed prediction errors after trimming the top and bottom 1% of the forecast errors and without any trimming. The resulting patterns of prediction errors (not reported) are in both cases very similar to those of Table 3. As expected, Table 3 emasculated errors are substantially smaller than the non-trimmed errors, the R2s are larger, and the Theils U statistics are lower, yet our conclusions regarding the relative performance of the five models equally apply to the non-trimmed errors. substantially our inferences. 3. Classification by size of accruals.Since the estimates we examine are components of total accruals, we classified the sample firms into three groups, by the size of accruals, to check whether accruals size affects our findings. Specifically, for each sample year we ranked the firms by the size of total accruals (scaled by total assets), and then formed three groups the top 25% of firms (high accruals), the middle 50% (medium accruals), and the bottom 25% (low accruals). We then generated cash flow and earnings predictions for each of the three accruals g